Europe After the Vacation From History

The hotel “Bayerischer Hof” in Munich is the annual stage of the Munich Security Conference. (Photo: Gerald Schneider, Feb. 16, 2018)

What Friedrich Merz’s Munich Speech Reveals About Germany’s Strategic Moment

Each year, the Munich Security Conference functions as a strategic seismograph, registering shifts in power, perception, and political will. This year, it was the opening address by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that set the tone—less through grand announcements than through a notable change in posture.

Merz did something that has become increasingly rare in transatlantic settings: he drew clear boundaries without resorting to confrontation. At a moment when parts of the U.S. political debate are marked by maximalist rhetoric, he chose calm demarcation over accommodation. “Der Kulturkampf der MAGA-Bewegung in den USA ist nicht der unsere,” Merz said—an understated but unmistakable signal that Germany does not intend to import America’s domestic polarization into its own strategic outlook.

Without naming names, the message contrasted sharply with the recent European habit of managing relations with President Donald Trump through excessive reassurance and rhetorical deference. Merz’s approach suggested a different premise: that alliance solidarity does not require political mimicry—and that even superpowers remain dependent on reliable partners.

Responsibility Without Illusions

At the same time, the chancellor turned the spotlight inward. Europe—and Germany above all—must finally align declared ambition with material commitment. Strategic autonomy, Merz implied, is not a slogan but a balance sheet.

This dual message—setting limits outward while demanding responsibility at home—captures Europe’s central dilemma. The continent speaks the language of geopolitics with growing fluency, yet still hesitates when it comes to implementation. The problem is not diagnosis, but follow-through.

The End of Strategic Comfort

In recent months, a phrase by the philosopher Peter Sloterdijk has resurfaced with striking frequency: “Der Urlaub von der Weltgeschichte ist vorbei.” The appeal of the phrase lies in its clarity. It suggests that Europe’s long period of strategic comfort—outsourcing security, underestimating risk, and mistaking stability for permanence—has come to an end.

If that is true, consequences must follow. Europe needs to invest more seriously in its own defense capabilities. It must reassess and reduce critical dependencies—in security, trade, energy, technology, and access to strategic resources. The era in which economic interdependence was assumed to be inherently stabilizing is over.

Germany’s Economic Constraint

For Germany, these challenges are inseparable from domestic economic performance. As Europe’s largest economy, Germany cannot credibly assume greater strategic responsibility while remaining trapped in stagnation. Sustainable growth—not driven primarily by public spending, but by productivity, innovation, and private investment—is the precondition for everything else.

That requires politically difficult choices: reducing regulatory burdens, accelerating digitalization, reforming taxation, and addressing structurally high energy costs. Without such reforms, even large-scale defense and infrastructure programs risk becoming temporary stimuli rather than lasting solutions. Strategic ambition without economic renewal will not endure.

Germany has faced this expectation before. In 2011, the Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski famously warned that he feared German inaction more than German dominance. The remark still resonates—not as provocation, but as diagnosis. Leadership by example remains Germany’s unresolved task.

Europe at the Side Table

The challenge extends beyond Berlin. The European Union as a whole must reconsider its role in an increasingly transactional world. Too often, the Union appears slow, procedurally complex, and disproportionately focused on regulation rather than strategic empowerment.

The consequences are visible. On issues ranging from Gaza and Israel to negotiations involving Russia or Iran, Europe frequently finds itself present—but peripheral. It contributes economically and normatively, yet rarely shapes outcomes. Presence without influence is not a sustainable model for a geopolitical actor.

Speech Is Not Strategy

Merz addressed many of these issues—some directly, others by implication. That, in itself, marks a shift in tone. But speeches at security conferences do not resolve structural weaknesses. They merely expose them.

The strategic landscape is unforgiving. Europe’s challenges are well known; its time horizon is not. If the “vacation from history” has indeed ended, then clarity must now be matched by action. Otherwise, even the most carefully calibrated rhetoric will fade quickly—leaving familiar questions unanswered once again.

This article also appeared on Substack.